Prognostic scores are valuable tools for predicting survival in patients with chronic liver disease. Recently, the albumin-bilirubin (ALBI) score has emerged as a potential prognostic indicator in liver-related conditions. This study aimed to compare the prognostic efficacy of the ALBI score with the Model for End-stage Liver Disease (MELD), MELD-Na+, and Child-Turcotte-Pugh (CTP) scores in predicting survival among patients with alcohol-associated liver disease (ALD).
This study included consecutive ALD patients admitted to the Medicine and Gastroenterology wards of MKCG Medical College and Hospital, Berhampur, Odisha, India, between November 2019 and November 2022. Upon hospitalization, baseline characteristics, clinical and laboratory parameters, ALBI, MELD, MELD-Na+, and CTP scores were recorded. The accuracy of these scores in predicting survival up to three years was compared.
A total of 490 ALD patients were included. Higher ALBI scores were observed in patients who died during hospitalization (p < 0.001), at 28 days (p < 0.001), 90 days (p < 0.001), six months (p < 0.001), one year (p < 0.001), two years (p < 0.001), and three years (p < 0.001), compared to those who survived. However, the area under the receiver operating characteristic (AUROC) curves showed that the ALBI score was inferior to MELD, MELD-Na+, and CTP scores in predicting survival at admission [AUROC: ALBI (0.719), MELD-Na+ (0.823), MELD (0.817), CTP (0.770)] and at three years [AUROC: ALBI (0.755), MELD-Na+ (0.787), MELD (0.758), CTP (0.784)]. Furthermore, Cox regression analysis revealed that components used in the MELD, MELD-Na+, and CTP scores—such as serum creatinine, serum sodium, and hepatic encephalopathy—were independent predictors of mortality, whereas the components of the ALBI score (serum albumin and serum bilirubin) were not.
All hospitalized ALD patients had a grade 3 ALBI score, with significantly higher scores observed among non-survivors compared to survivors. However, MELD, MELD-Na+, and CTP scores were superior to the ALBI score in predicting survival both during hospitalization and over a three-year follow-up period.
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