Original Article
Open Access
Xinyu Chen, Yicheng Lin, Kefeng Jia, Rong Lv, Jiajun Tian, Fenghui Li, Jun Li, Yiwen Zhang, Ning Wang, Zhongsong Gao, Weili Yin, Fang Wang, Ping Zhu, Chao Yang, Jiayin Wang, Tao Wang, Junqing Yan, Ying Liu, Qing Ye, Huiling Xiang
Published online September 3, 2025
Journal of Clinical and Translational Hepatology.
doi:10.14218/JCTH.2025.00199
Abstract
Further decompensation in cirrhosis is associated with increased mortality. However, reliable tools to predict further decompensation after transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic
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Further decompensation in cirrhosis is associated with increased mortality. However, reliable tools to predict further decompensation after transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt (TIPS) are currently limited. This study aimed to investigate the incidence and risk factors of further decompensation within one year post-TIPS in patients with cirrhosis and to develop a predictive model for identifying high-risk individuals.
This retrospective cohort study enrolled 152 patients with cirrhosis undergoing TIPS for variceal bleeding and/or refractory ascites (January 2018–January 2024). Patients were stratified according to one-year decompensation outcomes. LASSO regression and multivariable logistic analysis were used to identify predictors, and a nomogram was constructed and internally validated using bootstrapping (1,000 replicates).
Among the 152 patients (median age 57.5 years [IQR 50.0–66.0]; 58.6% male; 58.6% viral/alcohol-associated etiology), 65.8% (100/152) achieved clinical stability at one year post-TIPS, while 34.2% (52/152) developed further decompensation. LASSO regression identified right hepatic lobe volume, spleen volume, and portal pressure gradient (PPG) reduction as key predictors, all independently associated with further decompensation risk in multivariable analysis (OR [95% CI]: 0.683 [0.535–0.873], 1.435 [1.240–1.661], and 0.961 [0.927–0.996], respectively). The nomogram demonstrated superior discrimination compared with PPG reduction alone and benchmark prognostic scores (AUC 0.854 [0.792–0.915] vs. 0.619–0.652; ΔAUC +0.201–+0.235, p < 0.001) with 92.3% sensitivity. High-risk patients (score > 86) had a 10.7-fold higher risk of further decompensation than low-risk patients (60.0% vs. 5.6%; p < 0.0001).
This validated model, combining hepatosplenic volumetry and PPG reduction, accurately stratifies further decompensation risk post-TIPS and may guide targeted surveillance and preventive interventions.
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