The Asia-Pacific region accounts for a larger share of the hepatitis B burden than any other regions of the world, presenting a challenge to meeting the World Health Organization (WHO) 2030 elimination targets. In this study, we aimed to quantify the burden of chronic hepatitis B (CHB) and project its trends through 2030 using the GBD 2023 framework, thereby identifying gaps and priorities for the Asia-Pacific region to achieve WHO 2030 targets.
Using data from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2023, we analyzed chronic hepatitis B (CHB) prevalence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years. We evaluated temporal trends (1990–2023) using average annual percent changes and projected the 2024–2030 burden using Bayesian age-period-cohort models.
In 2023, the Asia-Pacific region accounted for 63% of global CHB cases (178.0 million), 66% of deaths (259.1 thousand), and 65% of disability-adjusted life years (8.4 million). Regional prevalence and mortality rates exceeded global averages, although childhood (<5 years) prevalence was comparatively lower (590.3 vs. 1,325.3 per 100,000). East Asia bore the highest absolute burden (99.2 million cases), and South Asia had the largest pediatric caseload. Between 1990 and 2023, Western Asia showed the steepest decline in adult prevalence (−1.99%), whereas Southeast and Central Asia exhibited upward mortality trends. Projections indicate that the Asia-Pacific region is off track to meet the WHO 2030 disease elimination targets, as the prevalence rate in children under five years remains above the 0.1% target threshold and absolute mortality is projected to increase.
The Asia-Pacific region continues to contribute the largest share of the global CHB burden and now faces persistent gaps despite progress. Although substantial progress has been made in reducing prevalence through immunization, the region is currently off track to meet the WHO 2030 targets for both incidence and mortality.
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