The most often encountered kind of liver cancer is hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), in which distant metastases (DM) continue to result in a worse prognosis. The present study aims to determine the prognostic and predictive factors of DM in patients with HCC, and generate two nomograms to assess the occurrence probability of DM and prognosis of HCC patients with DM.
From 2010 to 2015, the data of patients who were diagnosed with HCC in the Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) database were retrospectively reviewed. The multivariate and univariate logistic regression analyses were assessed to determine the risk factors correlated to the occurrence of DM in patients with HCC. Then, the multivariate and univariate analyses of the Cox regression were assessed to determine prognostic risk factors of DM in HCC patients, and two nomograms were constructed.
The present study included 14,508 participants with HCC. Gender, T stage, N stage and tumor size were determined as independent risk factors correlated to the occurrence of DM in HCC patients, while T stage, N stage, surgery, radiation and chemotherapy were determined as independent prognostic factors in HCC patients with DM. The AUC for the diagnostic nomogram was 0.766 in the training group and 0.776 in the testing group. At 6, 9 and 12 months, the AUC for the prognostic nomogram was 0.732, 0.727 and 0.719, respectively, in the training group, and 0.697, 0.722 and 0.731, respectively, in the testing group.
The two nomograms developed to assess the occurrence of DM in HCC patients and prognosis of HCC patients with DM may benefit clinician decision-making and clinical patient prognosis.
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